|
|
|
RIBA Future Trends Survey - July 2010 The following is a summary analysis of the results from the July 2010 Survey returns. Future workload (July 2010)
(The definition for the balance figure is the difference between those expecting more work and those expecting less.) The RIBA Future Trends Workload Index for July 2010 is -4, down from +2 in June 2010. This is the fifth consecutive month in which this Index has fallen, and it has now entered negative territory for the first time since April 2009, providing a clear indication that architects now anticipate a further significant downturn in overall levels of business. It is now medium size practices (11 – 50 staff) which are the most pessimistic about their future work prospects (balance figure -17). The following graph plots the RIBA Future Workload Index over time and clearly reveals the double-dip trend in our survey prediction, with practices now anticipating an overall reduction in workload over the next quarter:
In terms of workload predictions by sector, private housing, commercial and public sector forecasts have all fallen this month. The public sector forecast has fallen to -38 in July 2010 compared with -29 in June 2010, as the full impact of cuts in key Government programmes, such as BSF, becomes more clearly defined for our participating practices. Of perhaps even greater concern is that the commercial sector forecast has now fallen into negative territory; the balance figure for this sector being -7 in July 2010 compared with +2 in June 2010. There is already widespread concern that recovery in the commercial sector will not be sufficiently quick and strong to make-up for the shortfall in public sector capital spending, and this prediction for a reduction in commercial activity must be of great concern to practices active in this sector. The following graph tracks the sector predictions in the RIBA Future Trends Survey over time:
On a quarterly basis we also ask our practices about their actual current workload levels in comparison with those of the same month in the previous year, giving a year-on-year snapshot of levels of work in progress. This figure has not reached or exceeded 100% since the RIBA Future Trends Survey was launched in January 2009, indicating that the architects’ profession has been effectively in continuous recession throughout this period, although the rate of decrease in workloads has been steadily slowing. However, in July 2010 our practices have reported a decrease in this figure to 90% compared with 93% last quarter, which supports the proposition that we are now entering a second recessionary phase for architectural practice. The same trend is evident when we ask our practices about their actual staffing levels. Future staffing levels (July 2010) How do you think the number of permanent architectural staff employed in your organisation will change over the next three months?
(The definition for the balance figure is the difference between those expecting to employ more permanent staff in the next three months and those expecting to employ fewer.) The RIBA Future Trends Staffing Index is unchanged this month at -8. Medium size practices are now the most cautious about future staffing levels (balance figure -18). (The balance figure for temporary staffing is slightly more encouraging, currently standing at +1.) No The following graph plots the RIBA Future Trends Staffing Index over time:
Commentary submitted by our respondents this month focuses on a number of themes which have featured consistently throughout the life of the RIBA Future Trends Survey, including intense fee competition, delays in the release of development funding from banks, late and non-payment of fees and delays in the planning application system. The overall sense is that the general election has not had the effect of improving confidence, with many clients still very reluctant to commit to capital programmes. With interest rates remaining at an all time low, the bespoke, private residential sector remains buoyant in many locations, but some practices report little recovery in private sector multiple housing. Many architects active in the residential sector are anxious about the impact of the proposed VAT increase. A number of practices which have managed to maintain workloads report that the value of projects, in terms of size and fees, is generally reducing, with consequent impact on profit margins and salary levels. More specialist work, such as conservation, seems to be offering a safer haven. The RIBA Future Trends Survey is based on a representative sample of the range of different practice sizes and geographical locations which enables analysis of the trends in sectors, size groups and by region. The development of a larger database of respondents will increase the statistical accuracy of the survey, and if your practice would like to participate in future months, please contact the RIBA Practice Department on 020 7307 3749 or email practice@inst.riba.org. The survey takes approximately five minutes to complete each month, and all returns are independently processed in strict confidence by our partners the Fees Bureau. January 2009 Report |
Featured Jobs
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
